Research Methodology – Market Definitions
Indonesia Industrial Water and Waste Water Treatment market: It is defined as the total value of projects announced for construction of industrial water and waste water treatment in power plants. It includes the EPC contracts, Operation and maintenance, capacity addition and upgradation and equipment sales. It excludes the revenue generated by Indonesian firms executing overseas contracts as well as sewage treatment and municipal water treatment.
Indonesia Operation and Maintenance Market: It is defined as th revenue generated by providing third party operation and maintenance service for water and waste water treatment in various private and government industry. It includes the cost of labour supply , chemicals and others. It excludes the cost of treatment done by companies themselves.
Indonesia EPC market for Industrial water and Waste Water Treatment: It include the total value of projects allocated in a particular year for construction of new plants, upgradation of existing plants and capacity addition. It includes the cost of engineering, construction, material supply and commissioning. It includes both individual Industrial WTP and Industrial Zone WTP. It excludes the water treatment projects for municipal and sewage treatment.
Indonesia Industrial Water Treatment Equipment Market: It is defines as the total price paid by EPC contractors to OEMs and material suppliers in industrial water and waste water treatment for supply of equipments to be installed and consumed while construction of WWTPs.
Research Methodology – Consolidated Research Approach
Hypothesis Creation: The research team has first framed a hypothesis about the market through analysis of existing industry factors obtained from magazines, journals, broker reports, investor presentations and annual reports of major companies, Ministry of Environment and Forests, Ministry of Industry and Others.
Hypothesis Testing: The research team conducted computer assisted telephonic interview (CATI) with several industry professionals including decision makers in EPC and Equipment manufacturing companies. The industry professionals included several management executives, and other higher level authorities. Structured interviews were conducted through telecom with several industry veterans including major decision makers from Metito, Concept powertech, PT Nobel and other companies. The analyst at Ken Research collated their insights on the market onboard and to seek justification to the hypothesis framed by the team.
Sanity Checking @ Decision Tree Analysis: Data has been collected and verified through cross-sanity checking the opinion and facts received from interview with the hypotheses framed from public databases. The team has verified the data by conducting both bottom-to-top and top-to-bottom analysis.
Future Forecasting via Poll Opinions and Statistical Tools: Multi-Factor regression was conducted on the lag variables by identifying the independent and quantifiable variables directly affecting the market. The forecasting was done by using SPSS statistical tools. The variables were checked for multi-co-linearity and other bias that could be present in the model. The conclusion from the regression was then double-checked by conducting poll opinions.
Interpretation and Proofreading: The final analysis will then be interpreted in the research report by our expert team well versed with the Water Industry.
Research Methodology – Market Sizing and Limitation – Water and Waste Water Treatment Market
Market Sizing:
- Initially, we identified all major EPC and equipment supplier water treatment companies operating in the market. We then collated the order intake for current year, revenue from sale of equipments and O&M contracts. This helped us in sanity checking the current market size provided by industry veterans.
- We also collated the information for entire water treatment industry size including Sewage treatment, Municipal supply and industrial water treatment and then interviewed industry professionals to seek their expert opinion on contribution of industrial water and waste water treatment.
- We have conducted multiple CATIs with industry experts and management of leading EPC companies and equipment manufacturers to understand the market size, bidding system, customer acquisition, and their views on future development. This helped us in estimating revenue generated for the overall market and validating the future growth in the market
Limitation:
- It can happen that some of the projects may get caught up in legal battle or protest from local bodies which can either delay the project or may even stop the project. It is also possible that company exit the projects due to some technical or financial issue.
- It might be possible that some companies may have included equipment supply or construction cost in their order book and other EPC players may have included the cost in their EPC contract which may lead to over reporting or overestimation of the market.
- Market for O&M was estimated based on opinion provided by industry experts, however it might be possible that it may vary slightly with margin of error of 10% from original market size considering that many companies opt for captive treatment rather than outsourcing the O&M job and gauging such information was our research constraint.
Research Methodology – Variables (Dependent and Independent)
Variables Considered:
- Installed Capacity of Thermal Power plant in MW:. Installed capacity of thermal power plants play a very large contribution in water and waste water treatment market as it is the biggest user of water in the industry.
- Palm Oil Production in Thousand Tons: Indonesia is the biggest producer of Palm Oil in the world and the expansion and growth of this industry has a strongly positive contribution to the water and waste water treatment market.
Forecast Modelling:
- The report applies Correlation and Regression analysis methods to forecast the future of the Industrial water and waste water treatment market. The capabilities of SPSS and predictive analytics software have been leveraged to determine the relevant indicators used for forecasting this industry. However, findings were not in line with that of the industry experts and our theory. So we took a weighted average of all the data available to us through primary and secondary sources and found the results.
- In the present case, water and waste water treatment market revenue has been taken as the dependent variable and other variables such as installed capacity of thermal power plant and palm oil production have been taken as independent variables.
Indonesia Water and Waste Water Treatment Market Overview
Water Utilization Key Takeaway:
- Total water availability in Indonesia is ~ billion m3/year ( source: ADB Report, 2016)
- Total water demand is 175 billion m3/year (source: ADB Report, 2016)
- The total amount of urban wastewater generated in approximately ~ billion liters per day out of which only 1 percent is treated. (source: World Bank Report, 2013)
- There are 4 industrial regions in Indonesia- Java, Sumatera, Sulawesi and Kalimantan. These regions require an average daily demand of ~ million m3/ day (Source: ADB Report, 2016)
- Agro-industry, Food & Beverages industry, Textiles, and Paper & Pulp industry are the water intensive industries in Indonesia requiring a large level of water as input.
- Generation of Industrial Waste Water
- Major region in Indonesia contributing to the market for industrial water and waste water treatment industry include Sumatra (~%), Jakarta and Java (~%), Sulawesi (~%) Kalimantan (~%), Maluku and Irian Java (~%)
Citarum river, once declared the world’s dirtiest river by two nonprofit organizations, the New-York-based Blacksmith Institute and Switzerland-based Green Cross, is now the target of a large project by the government following a directive from Indonesian President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo in Jan 2017. This was a reaction to the discovery made in the 2013 study which said that an approximate 280 tons of toxic waste is deposited in Citarum river every day.
Operation And Maintenance Contracts (Past, Present and Future)
Its is expected that as energy efficiency and environmental impact of effluent discharge gains more importance the role of experts in O&M of WWT and WT will increase. Energy consumption of equipments is expected to boost the overall value of contract. Large scale industries and government owned enterprises whose primary business is not related to water treatment are expected to continue or increase their reliance on third party operators
Earlier the contracts for O&M form a part of EPC contracts with period of contract extending much beyond three to five years. Large companies outsource their water treatment facilities to same companies by renewing the contract. Government companies use to issue long term O&M contracts.
The market has become very competitive with many active players in O&M. business. The contract for O&M become very cost competitive due to increased competition. Criteria for selection is now based on cost, prior experience, and adaptability and availability of local manpower. The business is now slowly being captured by local companies in the area.
For more information on the research report, refer to below link:
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