Socio-Demographic Indicators of Turkey
Turkey is a country located primarily in Western Asia, with a portion belonging to Southeast Europe. The country currently has a population of 84.3 Mn people, 25.1 Mn households and GDP per Capita of USD 8,538. Turkey has been witnessing an inflationary crisis, with an increase of XX% in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over previous year. The unemployment rate in the country stood at XX% in September, 2021.
Around XX Million people visited Turkey from other foreign countries in the first nine months of the year 2021, Istanbul is the most preferred destination for restaurant customers across Turkey. Istanbul also attracts high domestic tourists and internally migrating population. Istanbul is mostly preferred by foreign visitors from Western Asia and Europe, with countries such as Germany, Iran and Russia being the leading countries in terms of percentage of tourist population visiting the country of Turkey.
Industry Ecosystem
The Food & Beverage Market in Turkey imports XX% of the food ingredients used all over the industry. There are around XX thousand food and XX beverage firms, providing employment to around XXX thousand people. USD XX Billion is the grocery retailer sale industry market size for the year 2019. The market size for the F&B Industry stands at USD XX Billion for the year 2020, projected to increase to USD XX Billion by the year 2025. Favorable unit economics and multi-fold adoption during outbreak of COVID-19 has shaped up to the bright future of online food delivery segment in Turkey.
Overview of Restaurants Industry in Turkey
Restaurants sub-sector contributes XX% to the F&B industry owing to the dynamic ecosystem of international brands and high influx of tourists every year. Quick Service Restaurants are the most popular category, and include brands such as McDonalds, Burger King and Sbarro. Other categories include Fine Dining Restaurants such as Zuma and Nobu, Casual Dining Restaurants such as Sazeli and Cookshop, Nightclubs and Shisha Lounges such as Klein and Sortie, Coffee Shops such as Cup of Joy and Petra, Desert Parlors such as Asuman and Vakko, and Hotel based Restaurants such as Shangri-La and Hilton. Istanbul is the most-preferred destination for restaurant customers across Turkey followed by Ankara, Izmir, Bursa, Antalya and others.
Istanbul – Largest City in Turkey
Istanbul has a total of XX Million population, residing across XX urban municipalities. XX% of the households in Istanbul have internet access, of which XX% use it for online shopping and XX% use it for ordering food. This, along with a XX% penetration rate for e-delivery services, equates to around USD XX Billion worth restaurant industry in Istanbul, in 2021. Additionally, around USD XX is the average monthly household disposable income in Istanbul, of which XX% is spent on food and beverage consumption.
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District Analysis of Istanbul
Esenyurt is the most populated district in Istanbul, with a population of around XXX people. Gaziosmanpaşa is the district with the highest population density in Istanbul, and Fatih is the district which witnesses the highest foreign visitor count. Beyoğlu and Şişli are second and third in order after Fatih, for witnessing the most foreign visitors on an annual basis.
Analysis of Categories of Restaurants
Quick Service Restaurants (QSRs) lead the rest of the restaurant categories when it comes to the end-user spend, accounting for XX% of the same. QSRs usually cater to population of all income categories collectively, along with a focus on students and working professionals. They usually don’t have a set ‘peak period’, and service customers round the year, with more demand than usual flowing in at the time of Christmas and New Year. The “occasional” nature of demand across categories such as desert parlors, cuisine-specific restaurants and nightclubs leads to them contributing around X% to the end-user spend in the F&B industry, collectively.
Business Environment in Turkey
Turkey ranks at XX position nations in terms of ease of doing business owing to majority compliance related facilities available online. While Turkey ranks strongly in Ease of Doing Business Index, the process of submitting documents and seeking approvals for starting restaurant business is still cumbersome.
High direct and indirect taxation adds to the barrier for strong performance of HORECA sector. General VAT rate is XX%, with XX% VAT being applicable to Agricultural products such as raw cotton and dried hazelnut, and XX% VAT being applicable to items such as basic food stuff, textiles, books etc. There are some common malpractices in the restaurants industry of Istanbul, namely reporting of revenue, staff salaries, rent payable and inflating other expenses.
Impact of Covid-19 on Restaurants Industry in Istanbul
While no country could escape the impact of COVID-19, Turkey got severely affected due to economic downturn since past few years and high dependency on tourist expenditure. Restrictions for tourists have included mandatory COVID-19 tests and 14-day mandatory quarantine for travelers arriving in Turkey. Post descending into normalcy, quarantine-free travel has also been offered to foreign visitors.
While certain restaurants suffered due to operational restrictions, few restaurants leveraged on D2C ‘retail sales’ of their food ingredients and diversified business segments. Subsequent waves and variants of COVID-19 coupled with fast pace of vaccination have prompted businesses, customers and government to “learn to live” and strategize accordingly. There has also been a visible increase in the online food delivery segments as well as a noticeable rise of cloud kitchens.
Future Outlook of Restaurants Industry in Istanbul and F&B Industry in Turkey
The fear of virus still looms yet the improvement in macroeconomic indicators coupled with re-bound in tourism activity is expected to propel Growth in Restaurants Industry of Istanbul. The growth is further expected to be shaped by changing customer behavior to becoming online savvy & focus on alternate channels of revenue by businesses.
Analyst Recommendations and Risk Factors
Analyst recommendations include must have’s across important criterion such as location, design of outlet, engagement with customers, popularity of the chef, operational efficiencies and focus on word of mouth. For example, when considering operational efficiencies, focusing on digitalizing restaurant menu and order systems and building loyalty programs could lead to better utilization of the restaurant space and lead to a maintained order flow.
Risk factors would be centered on parameters such as revenue dependency, customer stickiness, operational feasibility, ecosystem support, financial feasibility, government factors and demand momentum. For example, when considering ecosystem support, it is important to be cognizant of the import restrictions and rapidly changing prices since it may become difficult to ensure adequate supply and type of raw materials.
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